Wednesday, April 22, 2009

Third Quarter: Home Sweet Home

Halfway through our look at the Vikings schedule, I think we can all pretty much agree that the Vikings should have a better than average record going into their bye week in Week 9. Five of Minnesota's first eight games will be played away from the cozy confines of the Metrodome, so the second half of the schedule sets up nicely for a second-half run, and nowhere is that more apparent than in the third quarter of the 2009 schedule.

The Vikings will come out of the gate from the bye week with three consecutive home games, which is usually a rarity in the National Football League. Couple that with the bye, and the Beloved Purple won't have to leave the Twin Cities for a month. The schedule for this particular portion of the season doesn't look particularly menacing either.

We start out with our second tilt of the season against the Detroit Lions. Last year was a bit of an anomaly from the way this rivalry has gone over the course of the past decade or so. Last year the Lions played Minnesota close in both of their meetings, and were absolutely closer to beating the Vikings than they were to beating any other team on their schedule. However, the general rule has been that these two teams play a close game in Detroit. . . and then the Lions come to the Metrodome and get their heads stomped in by Minnesota. Hopefully this trend will continue this season, and the Vikings can maintain their dominance in a rivalry that they've pretty much owned for the last decade.

The next game for Minnesota will see them playing host to a team that the Vikings have developed a bit of a history with over the past couple of years, the Seattle Seahawks. Yes, they had a lot of injured players on offense last year, including quarterback Matt Hasselbeck, who may or may not still be whining about E.J. Henderson's perfectly legal hit during the 2006 meeting between these two teams. This is reflected by their team's final standings on offense, where they finished 25th in points scored and 28th in total yardage.

However, with that being the case, their defense was pretty abysmal in 2008 as well, where they were dead last in the NFL against the pass, 30th in yards allowed, and 25th in scoring defense. They then chose to upgrade their defense by trading one of their true studs in LB Julian Peterson to Detroit. In exchange, they got DT Cory Redding. . . who, since getting a big, fat contract extension in Detroit, has done a whole lot of jack squat. For crying out loud, they're still starting Brian Russell at safety. Yes, THAT Brian Russell.

As I said, yes, the Seahawks had some injury problems last year. . . they've also got a whole lot of holes that need patching. They're no longer the dominant force in the NFC West, or in the NFC in general. Unless they patch a whole lot of those holes at one time, I'm not sure if they can walk into the Metrodome and knock off a Vikings team that should have some momentum going.

We follow that up with a visit from the "Super Bowl XLIV Champion", 2008 NFC North runner-up Chicago Bears. I've already detailed that I'm not terribly scared nor impressed by the Bears, with or without Jay Cutler. And, once again, the reason behind that is their defense is completely getting by on reputation to this point rather than how they're producing on the field. Jay Cutler, at last check, doesn't play defense. . . and, for the better part of last season, neither did anybody else in Chicago. Unless Brian Urlacher has somehow managed to take eight years off of his age in the off-season and Charles Tillman has figured out where Bernard Berrian is. . . how is that going to change now that they've gutted their draft?

That said, we generally split our games with our NFC North rivals from Green Bay and Chicago. I have no reason to think that Minnesota won't hold up their end of that bargain on this day. The Vikings bucking the trend and completing the season sweep will be a tall order.

I'll conclude this portion of the schedule with the only road game in this quarter of the season, as the Vikings will return to the scene of what might have been their most dominating performance of 2008 with a clash against the defending NFC Champion Arizona Cardinals. We all remember the 2008 game between these two teams, with Tarvaris Jackson throwing for four touchdown passes and the Beloved Purple generally thrashing Arizona from one side of University of Phoenix Stadium to the other. I don't think it's realistic to expect a repeat of this performance, but this is still, certainly, a winnable game.

In 2008, the Cardinals' pass offense was amazing. They had three receivers each go over the 1,000-yard mark, and basically threw the ball all over the field whenever they wanted. Of course, this came at the expense of having a pretty terrible rushing offense, as they finished dead last in the league in that category. Also, their offense might have a bit of a different look in 2009, as running back Edgerrin James is disgruntled, and the Cardinals are openly shopping wide receiver Anquan Boldin. Also, with as great as Kurt Warner was in 2008, he had spent most of his time in Arizona fighting over the starting job with 2006 draft bust Matt Leinart. There's an old saying that says that you can't outrun Father Time. . . is this the year that Kurt Warner gets caught? We'll have to see.

Defensively, despite turning it on in the post-season and getting Jake Delhomme to use them for target practice in the NFC Divisional Playoffs, the Cardinals' defense really isn't all that intimidating. They added CB Bryant McFadden in what was a pretty good move, but they haven't done a whole lot beyond that. The Boldin situation should allow them to bring in a little more help with extra draft picks.

All in all, going into the final four games of the year, I honestly (at this point) think that the Vikings should be somewhere in the 8-4/9-3 range and have some serious momentum going their way heading into the stretch run. Of course, after 20 years of being a Vikings' fan, nothing this team does would surprise me, but I'm actually fairly optimistic about what we've got to work with thus far.

Monday, April 20, 2009

Second Quarter: Bloody Sundays

As detailed in the "First Quarter", things appear to be set up for the Vikings to get off to a fast start in 2009. Hopefully that will be the case, because the second quarter of the schedule for the Beloved Purple looks to be absolutely brutal. This isn't to say that we should be automatically chalking up losses for the Vikings in these particular games, but they're going to be tough ones to be certain.

The second stanza of the 2009 season kicks off with the Vikings traveling to the Edward Jones Dome for a date with the St. Louis Rams. This may or may not be the first game back for the Williams Wall, depending on the circumstances of the StarCaps case. However, it will definitely be Minnesota's third game in their first five against a team with a brand new head coach, as former Giants' defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has taken the reins of what used to be "The Greatest Show on Turf."

The Rams have been pretty bad for a while now. . . after all, you don't pick #2 overall in two consecutive drafts by being great or anything like that. They were 31st overall in the NFL in 2008 in both points scored and points allowed. After being outstanding in 2006, Rams' quarterback Marc Bulger has spent the last two seasons looking pretty brutal. Running back Steven Jackson has battled injuries the last two seasons as well. Things don't figure to get any easier for the Rams' offense in 2009 after the losses of WR Torry Holt and future Hall of Fame OT Orlando Pace.

St. Louis was equally brutal on defense. They were near the bottom of the league against the run, and while they look slightly more respectable against the pass, they faced the second-fewest pass attempts in the league. . . no doubt a function of trailing frequently and having teams running the ball to eat the clock. On paper, the Vikings should be able to get past the Rams with no real trouble. . . but, as we know, games aren't played on paper. However, it would be nice if the Rams' game was a bit of a "breather," because Minnesota's next two games are going to be absolute slobberknockers.

The Beloved Purple will return to the Metrodome in Week Six for their second inter-conference match-up of the season, as they'll line up against the Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens are as great on defense as the Rams were bad, ranking no worse than third in any of the four major defensive categories. They were third in the NFL in points allowed, second in total yards allowed, second against the pass, and third against the run. The Ravens are one of the toughest, most physical defenses in the NFL, and they really have been for quite some time. You would also think that they might be due to start slowing down. . . Ray Lewis is getting older, they lost LB Bart Scott to the New York Jets, CB Chris McAlister likely won't be back. . . but the Ravens also have outstanding depth on the defensive side, so any drop-off that might happen will more than likely be minimal.

Offensively, they have a youngster at QB in Joe Flacco who played above and beyond expectations as a rookie in 2008. Thought to be a project when he was selected by the Ravens out of Delaware, Flacco started all 16 games for the Ravens last year, and played very well. He looked brutal in the post-season, but he didn't turn the ball over until the team's loss in the AFC Championship Game. He was helped by a three-headed rushing attack that was fourth in the NFL in that department, and with a year under his belt should be even better. This is definitely going to be a fight for Minnesota, because they will absolutely have to get to Flacco to be successful. And there will be no rest for the Vikings, because their next game will be a trip to the place that the Ravens lost that aforementioned AFC Championship Game.

Yes, after playing one of the best defenses in the NFL the week before, the Vikings will take a trip to Heinz Field to take on the defending world champion Pittsburgh Steelers and what was unquestionably the best defense in the NFL in 2008. Pittsburgh was #1 in the NFL in three of the four major defensive categories in 2008. Minnesota's game against the Ravens will feature two of the top three rush defenses in the league from 2008. The game against the Steelers will feature two of the top. . .well, two. Former Vikings coach. . . man, it's painful to write that. . . Mike Tomlin has asserted himself quite nicely in Pittsburgh, and Dick Lebeau's defense will be out to terrorize Sage Rosenfels or Tarvaris Jackson.

I won't lie to you, folks. . . out of the sixteen games on Minnesota's 2009 schedule, there's only one that I can honestly say that I don't think the Vikings have any real shot at winning. And it's this one. The Steelers are just that good. If this game was in Minnesota, I might give us a slight chance. At Pittsburgh, on the other hand? Not so much. Sure, we might catch the Steelers on a bad day or something. . . crazier things have happened before. . . but that's not something we should necessarily be betting on. Living an hour north of Pittsburgh...it sure would be nice if the unlikely happened though...ha ha!

The first half of our season ends with our annual trip to that shitty field up in Green Bay for our second bout with the Packers. We briefly touched on the Packers in the first post, so I won't re-hash everything here. However, it's always been significantly tougher for the Vikings to win at Lambeau than it's been for them to beat the Packers at the Dome. On the bright side, we'll be getting there while the weather should still be fairly decent, which is always nice. But I wouldn't be surprised to see the Packers get a measure of revenge for the slapping down they should get in Week 4 at our house in prime time. I'd be slightly more surprised to see Minnesota complete the season sweep here, but that certainly would be nice.

As things stand right now, I'd be disappointed if Minnesota was worse than 5-3 going into their bye week. But the second quarter of this season, highlighted by games against what might be the two most physical defenses in the National Football League, will certainly be a rough one from a personnel standpoint for Minnesota.

Friday, April 17, 2009

BOOM!

I bet somewhere right now, Frank Caliendo and Brett Favre are weeping.

Longtime coach, broadcaster, and most importantly (in my opinion) video game icon John Madden is hanging up his microphone. It was quite a run for the 73-year-old Hall of Fame, bus-riding, Favre-loving master of the obvious. He had been in the booth announcing NFL games for various networks since 1979.

Say what you will about the guy, but there is no question he has been a gigantic (no pun intended) part of the NFL's image for... well.... at least my entire 27 years on this planet. He coached the Raiders to a Super Bowl victory over... some team from Minnesota that you may have heard of. I believe this is why I've been genetically predisposed to be eternally annoyed by the guy, but I will say he was an excellent coach. He still holds the best winning percentage of any coach in NFL history. Even better than Childress! Amazing!

Of course, my generation reveres John not for his coaching or broadcasting but for the wonderful gift he and EA Sports give to us each August. Yes, the one place where the Vikings hold roughly a .996 winning percentage all-time on my consoles throughout the years - Madden NFL. The video game juggernaut has given football fans countless wasted hours, reasons to call in sick, and sore thumbs since 1993.

So sure, like me, you may be rejoicing the fact that you'll no longer have to hear John's "analysis" consisting of reiterating what you just saw with your own eyes. Just remember what he has brought to the game, both real and virtual. While I can't say I'm incredibly sad to see him leave the booth, I'll still give credit where credit is due. John Madden was, is, and will be an NFL icon.

This turducken is for you big guy.

Wednesday, April 15, 2009

First Quarter: With or Without You

The road to Super Bowl XLIV was officially constructed yesterday, as the NFL released the schedules of all 32 NFL teams. Minnesota's road looks like it has some bumps in it, but it looks like there could be some patches of smooth sailing as well. I know it's really early and everything, and you can't put a heck of a lot of stock into a team's performance from the previous season when looking ahead in this league (see the 2008 Miami Dolphins), but hey. . . it's fun to speculate, too. So, I'll begin breaking down what the 2009 schedule has in store for the Beloved Purple. I'm going to break this down into quarters and spread it out over the course of a few days.

If the Vikings do, for some reason, have to start the season without the services of Pat and Kevin Williams, it looks like the league has attempted to soften the blow a little bit by scheduling the Vikings against teams that don't have particularly good offenses. I would assume that such an attempt was unintentional, because. . .well. . . because it's the Vikings and we know that most of the league hierarchy can't stand them.

We'll start with the Cleveland Browns, who might have been the NFL's biggest disappointment in 2008. I personally picked them (moronically) to win their division last year. Their offense was, quite frankly, awful, as they ranked near the bottom of every significant offensive category. Some of this can be chalked up to injuries, while some of it can be chalked up to the quarterback controversy that raged for most of the season between Derek Anderson and Brady Quinn. The Browns were 30th in the NFL in points scored, 31st in both total offense and passing offense and 26th in rushing yardage.

Defensively, the Browns were a bit better. . . but, in what has to be considered good news for the Vikings, they were 28th in the league against the run. They'll also be breaking in a new coach and, presumably, installing new systems on offense and defense. I should be present for the game so that should mean...well... it'll probably mean a loss...ha ha!

From there, we move on to Ford Field and the first of our two dates with the Detroit Lions. Yes, the Vikings gave the Lions their only true shots at winning in 2008, but the fact remains that the 2008 Lions were 0-16, and might have been the worst franchise in the history of the National Football League. While I don't think it's possible that they repeat that in 2009, I don't think they're going to get off to a rip-roaring (pardon the pun) start, either. Like Cleveland, they're breaking in a new coach as well in Jim Schwartz.

As you'd expect from an 0-16 team, they weren't all that good on either side of the ball. . . but while the offense was just bad, the defense was horrific, ranking at the bottom in three of the four major categories (points, yards, rushing yards) while climbing all the way to 27th against the pass. Daunte Culpepper played well against his former team last year, and will probably have revenge on his mind again, but hopefully it won't matter all that much.

From there, the Vikings finally get to come home and open their Metrodome season against the San Francisco 49ers. Based on last year, the Niners are significantly more respectable on offense than either of the Vikings' first two opponents. . . but, while they're not breaking in a new coach, per se, Crazy Mike Martz is no longer the offensive coordinator by the Bay, so the offense might not be quite so prolific in 2009. This will, however, be the Vikings' first game against a premiere running back in the Niners' Frank Gore, and it could be quite the interesting test if the Williams Wall isn't available for some reason. The Niners still haven't really settled on a quarterback, and could even be breaking in a rookie in 2009, which one would think would play to Minnesota's advantage.

Defensively, Mike Singletary's bunch is about average in most aspects, and is easily the best bunch that the Vikings will face in the season's first three weeks. . . again, based entirely on last season. Hopefully between the excitement of a home opener and a good chance of a 2-0 record, the Vikes can have a statement game here.

The final game of the first quarter of 2009 is the classic "records go out the window" match-up between Minnesota and the Green Bay Packers on a Monday night in Minneapolis. Yes, the Packers have a great offense, nobody denies this. However, last year at the Metrodome, Gus Frerotte pretty much handed the Pack 17 of their 27 points, and the Vikings' special teams handed them another seven. So, I don't think the Packers' offense would be as much of a concern to the Vikings as it would be to some other teams. . . particularly in light of the fact that Aaron Rodgers is still wetting himself at the mere thought of Jared Allen.

Defensively, the Packers weren't very good in 2008, as even their vaunted secondary spent the better part of the second half of the year getting toasted. Unless I missed a story about Al Harris or Charles Woodson getting younger this off-season, I'm not sure that they're really all that scary. Couple in the fact that they're changing to a defensive scheme that they, quite frankly, don't have the personnel for, and I think the Vikings stand a better than average chance of coming out of this one with a victory.

Oh, and that Adrian Peterson guy? He should absolutely rip all four of these teams up one side and down the other. Repeatedly.

Based entirely on what we know right now, and regardless of the quarterback situation, there's no reason for the Vikings to come out of this four-game stretch any worse than 3-1. . . even if Pat and Kevin Williams are wrongfully suspended by the NFL. And they'll need to get off to a fast start if at all possible. . . because the second quarter of the season could turn out to be absolutely brutal. I'll examine just how brutal in the next few days. Gotta get back to this whole wedding planning thing.. ha ha!